Given the record-breaking number of homes that went under contract in the North Shore this summer, I strongly suspected we would also have a record-breaking number of closed sales in the 3rd quarter, and in fact we did. The number of North Shore home sales in the 3rd quarter of 2020 was up an amazing 45% from the 3rd quarter of 2019. Market time was up 24%, and median prices were up 8%. North Shore inventory is currently down 42% as compared with one year ago. This is a result of the large number of sales and probably some reluctance from sellers to list during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Because we had a strong 3rd quarter and a weak 2nd quarter, I also checked on how the year as a whole had been up to September 30th. It has been excellent with sales up 12% as compared to last year. Moreover, the 3rd quarter more than made up for the weak 2nd quarter.
Here are the 3rd quarter statistics:
|Number of Homes Sales||Average Market Time|
|3rd Q 19||3rd Q 20||3rd Q 19||3rd Q 20|
|Average Home Price (in thousands)||Median Home Price (in thousands)|
|3rd Q 19||3rd Q 20||% Change||3rd Q 19||3rd Q 20||% Change|
The above statistics are for detached single family homes and were compiled from data collected by the Multiple Listing Service (Midwest Real Estate Data LLC), and may not include all home sales
Prices: This is the first year since 2014 that we have seen a noticeable rise in prices. From my view the statistical 8% median price increase is overstating the actual increase. I think it is more in the area of 5%. Whether this is just a temporary pop up or a more permanent increase, we will have to see. Market times did increase significantly this quarter, which seems surprising given the strong sale numbers. I attribute this fact to the slow 2nd quarter and the fact that many of the sales this quarter were homes that did not sell in the 2nd quarter.
Inventory: Currently Wilmette has 101 single-family homes on the market that are not under contract. Last year at this time there were 143 active homes so the number has dropped significantly which should help Wilmette Sellers. The number of sales went up in Wilmette from 111 to 154 this quarter. Evanston has just 84 active homes currently. It had 207 last year so its inventory has dropped dramatically. Winnetka has 80 active homes, which is a significant drop from the 129 that were on last year. Glenview also has had a big inventory decrease going from 333 to 203 homes. The North Shore as a whole saw a large, 42% decrease, going from 2598 to 1518.
Interest Rates: Interest Rates this year have dropped to all time lows. They are currently around 2.875% for a 30 year fixed rate. That is true for both conforming and jumbo loans. That is well below the 3.5% we saw last year at this time, which, at the time, was a great interest rate. The 15 year fixed is about 2.5%.
The highest sale price in the North Shore in the 3rd quarter was $8,200,000 for a lakefront home on 1 acre in Winnetka. It has 5 bedrooms and 4 full and 1 half baths, and features a private beach. It appears to have been purchased primarily for the land.