April 12, 2013

Dear Friends,

The number of North Shore homes that went under contract in the first quarter exceeded the mark set in 2012 by 34%, and that was in spite of a much colder winter this year.   The number of homes that closed in the first quarter was up by 12% over 2012.  Market times for newly listed homes are coming down.  In Wilmette, the average market time plunged from 183 to 77 days. In the chart below are the statistics for closed single family homes.  Because closings occur about 2 months after a home sells, these statistics tell more about what was occurring in the prior quarter and, in fact, they understate the strength of the current market.  The number of homes going under contract this quarter is up significantly from the 1^st quarter of 2012 in every suburb this report covers in spite of low inventory.  (i.e. Wilmette + 18%; Evanston +63%; Winnetka +34%; Glenview +24%)

 

 

 

		Number of Homes Sales				Average Market Time
		1st Q-12	1st Q-13			1st Q-12	1st Q-13
Wilmette		43	37			183	77
Evanston		73	66			189	122
Winnetka		24	19			254	146
Glenview		66	79			165	158
North Shore		596	671			185	152
		Average Home Price (in thousands)				Median Home Price (in thousands)
		1st Q-12	1st Q-13	% Change		1st Q-12	1st Q-13	% Change
Wilmette		703	676	-4%		540	550	2%
Evanston		556	446	-25%		436	436	0%
Winnetka		1621	1160	-28%		1544	1000	-35%
Glenview		456	501	10%		354	425	20%
North Shore		559	526	-6%		379	416	10%

                    

The above statistics are for detached single family homes and were compiled from data collected by the Multiple Listing Service (Midwest Real Estate Data LLC), and may not include all home sales

 

Prices:  Prices are rising this year.  The first quarter statistics do not clearly show this because so many sales are occurring at the lower end.  Reasonably priced homes are flying off the market.   

Inventory:  Inventory has gone from low to virtually nonexistent in some locations.  Wilmette has 68 single family homes on the market that are not under contract.  Evanston has 95 such homes.  Based on the current rate of sales, that is less than a 2 month supply in each suburb.  This is the time of year when supply should be on the high side and expanding, but that has not been occurring due to the rapid pace of sales.

Interest Rates:  Conforming loans (loans below $417,000) continue to have excellent rates with fixed rates at about 3.5% and Adjustable rates in the 2.75% area.  Jumbo loans also have good rates with the 30 year fixed rate at about 4%.

Short Sales & Foreclosures:  Short sales and foreclosures accounted for 23% of all North Shore homes sales in the first quarter.  That number has drifted up and down a little over the past 5 years, but is consistently a significant share of the market ranging from 20 to 30 percent.

 

The most expensive home in the North Shore to sell this quarter was in Lake Forest and went for 3.1 Million.  It has over an acre of land, 8 ½ bathrooms and was built in 1996

 

For more real estate information visit my website:  www.JohnNashHomes.com .  I am also archiving my prior reports at: http://www.johnnashhomes.com/north-shore-market-report.html

 

Enjoy the spring weather—soon hopefully!  And as always I love your referrals.

January 2013

 

Dear Friends,

 

In 2012 the number of single family home sales in the North Shore increased by 19% and market times declined.  This is a clear sign that the real estate market is recovering from the downturn that began in 2007.  Statistically prices stayed about the same as 2011 with the median North Shore home price dropping 1%.  However, prices have been rising in many locations and the price statistics are thrown off some by the large number of lower end sales created by investors buying up inexpensive homes.  Below are the home sale statistics for 2012:

 

 

		Number of Homes Sales				Average Market Time
		2011	2012			2011	2012
Wilmette		262	335			132	103
Evanston		346	430			146	131
Winnetka		210	207			182	173
Glenview		402	455			175	160
North Shore		3286	3925			178	152
		Average Home Price (in thousands)				Median Home Price (in thousands)
		2011	2012	% Change		2011	2012	% Change
Wilmette		710	714	1%		650	600	-8%
Evanston		480	511	6%		423	439	4%
Winnetka		1260	1235	-2%		1002	1050	5%
Glenview		557	539	-3%		473	450	-5%
North Shore		620	582	-6%		455	450	-1%

 

 

Inventory:  In addition to the large increase in the number of home sales, another very encouraging aspect of the market, for sellers, is the very low inventory in many communities.  Wilmette has approximately 63 homes actively on the market that are not under contract.  That is just over a 2 month supply.  Evanston has 93 such homes which is less than a 3 month supply.  This is the lowest inventory for many years.  This bodes very well for Sellers putting their homes on the market this year.

 

Interest Rates:  The 3^rd statistic that is very encouraging for Sellers and Buyers is the exceptionally low interest rates.  Rates have been hovering for several months at or near all time lows.  The 30 year fixed rate for loans of $417,000 and below is at about 3.5 percent.  Jumbo loans are at about 4%.  Even investors can get very attractive loan rates at about 4%.

 

Short Sales/Foreclosures:  19% of North Shore single family homes sales in 2012 were either a short sale or a foreclosed property being re-sold by the lender.  This percentage continues to slowly decline from the peak year 2010 when 23% of home sales fit into this category.  I would expect this slow downward trend to continue.

 

2012 North Shore Sales Facts:  Highest Sale Price:  $7,500,000; Lowest sale price:  $36,000; Longest market time: 2026 days; Most Bathrooms: 11; 

 

 

December 10, 2012

There were 14 single family home closings in Wilmette this November.  That is down from November of 2011 when 18 homes closed so it was not a great month for closings.  However, the number of contracts written on Wilmette homes this November was 21 which compares with only 12 written in November of 2011.  That is a 75% increase in contracts written.  I think this bodes well for the market in 2013.  Typically the market is fairly quiet in November, but this year it is continuing to chug right along.  It appears to be setting the stage for a strong 2013 market that will likely kick into gear earlier than is typical.  In addition, inventory is extremely low.  There are just 72 single family homes actively on the market right now that are not under contract.  That is about a 2 1/2 month supply.  Homeowners wanting to sell in 2013 should get their homes on early in the year to take advantage of this low inventory and the fact that there are active buyers in the market.  Here are the homes that closed this November:

 

Street #	Str Name	MT	Orig List Pr	Sold Pr
801	Leamington	70	219900	219900
636	Leamington	10	279000	271000
3303	Wilmette	11	335000	341000
2940	Lake	125	430000	375000
1303	Maple	20	525000	495000
1216	Middlebury	188	619000	550000
701	Linden	52	650000	600000
220	Locust	41	679900	670000
115	DuPee	4	715000	715000
2611	KENILWORTH	5	739000	719500
435	Cove	137	899000	740000
311	4th	63	850000	786000
629	GREGORY	8	1049000	1000000
1327	Washington	64	1295000	1250000

October 15, 2012

Warren Buffet said earlier this year on CNBC that buying homes was better than buying stocks and that if it were practical he would buy up a couple hundred thousand homes.  Is buying properties to rent a good investment on the North Shore?  There is a lot a data to suggest it is. 

 

Let’s look at 2-4 unit properties which are the preferred choice of small real estate investors.  They are small enough for an investor to manage on his or her own, they get better interest rates than commercial properties or large apartment complexes, and are readily available on the North Shore especially in the suburbs of Evanston and Skokie.

 

In 2007, the median price of a 2-4 unit property on the North Shore was around $500,000.  They saw a sharp price decline over the next two years bottoming out in 2009 in the low 200’s.  Since then the median price has bounced along the bottom and in 2012 it is virtually the same as it was in 2009 at about $230,000.  

 

In addition to prices being at their low point for many years, interest rates are hitting all times lows so that if a buyer has good credit and can put 25% down, he can get a 30 year fixed rate below 4% on an investment property.  Rates for investment properties are higher than homeowner occupied properties so being able to get a rate below 4% is truly exceptional and something that will pay off for many years to come.

 

Prices are low and interest rates are rock bottom.  So what else do you need to look at to analyze a real estate investment--rents.  Rents are the most important piece of the puzzle.  If you could not get reasonable rents or it was hard to find tenants, then regardless of anything else, it would not make sense to buy a rental property.  However, the rental market is strong for landlords.  In the past few years rental rates have been on the rise and occupancy has been tight.  As anyone who has been on the apartment hunt knows, it is hard to find a good place to rent. 

 

Moreover, it is nearly a perfect environment for a real estate investor:  low prices, great interest rates and a strong rental market.  However, to take advantage of it you must be able to get the financing needed to complete the purchase and that is not easy.  If you are thinking about buying a rental property first meet with a good mortgage broker to run the numbers and see what type of loan you can qualify for.  If the mortgage professional gives you the green light to buy, then you are in good shape to take advantage of today’s favorable market for real estate investors.

October 4, 2012

 

Dear Friends,

 

North Shore homes sales in the 3^rd quarter of 2012 were up 17% from the 3^rd quarter of 2011.  In the first half of 2012 sales were up 15% from 2011 so the market is continuing to strengthen.  I was recently on the NBC Nightly News with Brian Williams commenting on this fact.  Here is a link to the clip:  http://video.msnbc.msn.com/nightly-news/49095058#49095058

 

Here are the 3^rd quarter statistics:

 

 

		Number of Homes Sales				Average Market Time
		3rd Q-11	3rd Q-12			3rd Q-11	3rd Q-12
Wilmette		94	113			92	76
Evanston		110	131			127	118
Winnetka		73	72			143	158
Glenview		131	135			149	138
North Shore		1048	1229			155	138
		Average Home Price (in thousands)				Median Home Price (in thousands)
		3rd Q-11	3rd Q-12	% Change		3rd Q-11	3rd Q-12	% Change
Wilmette		729	779	7%		651	705	8%
Evanston		518	503	-3%		453	455	0%
Winnetka		1261	1187	-6%		1100	1043	-5%
Glenview		542	608	12%		475	538	13%
North Shore		632	604	-4%		491	496	1%

 

 

The above statistics are for detached single family homes and were compiled from data collected by the Multiple Listing Service (Midwest Real Estate Data LLC), and may not include all home sales

 

Prices:  Single family home prices have been improving this year.  However, this has been hard to discern because there have been more sales in the lower price ranges bringing the averages down.  Nevertheless, this quarter Wilmette’s median home price shows an increase of 8% over the 3^rd quarter of 2011, and the median price for the North Shore is up 1%.  

 

Interest Rates:  Interest Rates continue to hit new all time lows with the 30 year fixed rate at about 3.50% for loans up to $417,000 (conforming).  Loans over $417,000 can get a 30 year fixed rate at about 3.75%.  The 15 year fixed is below 3.00%.  With these amazing low rates and prices still way below the peak, it is a great time to buy.

 

Foreclosures:  16% of North Shore sales in the 3^rd quarter were either a foreclosure or short sale.  This is approximately the same as last year and still a big part of the market.  If prices continue to improve, then this number may start to go down again.  It is below the peak when over 20% of the market was a distressed sale.

 

Links:

 

Past customers: if you want to review me here is a link to do so on Trulia (my preferred site) and Zillow:

http://www.trulia.com/voices/profile/Real_Estate_Pro-Wilmette_IL-831759/

 

http://www.zillow.com/profile/johnnash.homes

 

This is a Great new site for property tax data: http://www.cookcountypropertyinfo.com/Pages/pin-search.aspx

Site that gives a home's sale history & gossip type info on local buyers and sellers:  http://chicago.blockshopper.com 

My past North Shore Market Reports:  http://www.johnnashhomes.com/north-shore-market-report.html

 

I hope everyone is enjoying our pleasant fall weather.

 

John

 

 

July 13, 2012

Dear Friends,

North Shore single family homes sales were up 15% in the first half of 2012 compared to 2011.  This is a good sign that the market has begun to recover.  Statistically prices are down this year, but I believe this is a case of statistics not telling the full story.   I have seen homes sell faster and for better prices than they would have gotten last year.  The increased sales volume has occurred more at the lower end of the market thus pushing down average and median prices.  However, if you were to compare the sale price for identical North Shore homes this year and last year, the price this year would be a little higher.

 

In spite of generally weak economic data the past few months, homes sales continue to be strong.  Here are the first half statistics. 

 

		Number of Homes Sales			Average Market Time
		½ yr-11	½  yr-12		½ yr-11	½ yr-12
Wilmette		122	167		143	127
Evanston		156	204		150	142
Winnetka		96	93		214	193
Glenview		180	191		208	183
North Shore		1537	1766		197	165
		Average Home Price (in thousands)				Median Home Price (in thousands)
		½ yr-11	½  yr-12	% Change		½ yr-11	½ yr-12	% Change
Wilmette		745	682	-8%		687	555	-19%
Evanston		486	522	7%		466	451	-3%
Winnetka		1328	1355	2%		1007	1235	23%
Glenview		577	522	-10%		494	430	-13%
North Shore		634	585	-8%		460	440	-4%

 

The above statistics are for detached single family homes and were compiled from data collected by the Multiple Listing Service (Midwest Real Estate Data LLC), and may not include all home sales

 

Foreclosures:  19% of North Shore sales in 2012 have been either a foreclosure or short sale.  That number is down.  For several years we have heard that foreclosures were going to flood the market at some point.   While it is true that we continue to have a lot of foreclosures, many more than we saw prior to the recession, the predicted flood has not materialized in the North Shore and I now think it is not going to happen.

 

Interest Rates:  Have hit new lows again.  They have gotten down to around 3.5% percent for 30 year fixed loans up to $417,000.  The best rates are contingent upon a significant down payment and a high credit score.  15 year loans are around 3%.  30 year Jumbo loans are close to 4%.  These are all time low rates again.   

 

I hope this information is helpful to you.  Please call if you have any questions about it or other real estate matters.   To see past reports go to:  http://www.johnnashhomes.com/north-shore-market-report.html

 

I hope you are having a great summer and staying cool.

 

April 5, 2012

Dear Friends,

The number of North Shore single family homes that closed in the first quarter of 2012 was up by 14%.  The number of homes that went under contract in the first quarter was very large.  It exceeded the mark set in 2011 by 50%.  The exceptionally warm winter no doubt helped sales, but I also believe a corner was turned in the market.  Closings in future quarters will show that sales have picked up.  It has become easier to sell a fairly priced home.  Market times for newly listed homes are coming down.  Here are the statistics for closed single family homes

 

 

		Number of Homes Sales				Average Market Time
		1st Q-11	1st Q-12			1st Q-11	1st Q-12
Wilmette		39	43			181	183
Evanston		40	73			133	189
Winnetka		29	24			212	254
Glenview		59	66			233	165
North Shore		522	595			222	186
		Average Home Price (in thousands)				Median Home Price (in thousands)
		1st Q-11	1st Q-12	% Change		1st Q-11	1st Q-12	% Change
Wilmette		755	703	-7%		625	540	-14%
Evanston		414	556	34%		410	436	6%
Winnetka		1161	1621	39%		900	1544	71%
Glenview		649	457	-29%		555	354	-36%
North Shore		592	559	-6%		435	379	-13%

 

The above statistics are for detached single family homes and were compiled from data collected by the Multiple Listing Service (Midwest Real Estate Data LLC), and may not include all home sales

 

Prices:  Average and Median prices were down this quarter.  This is partly due to more sales occurring in the lower price ranges.  However, in a recovery, it takes longer for prices to bounce back than the number of sales.  Distressed sales are increasing in number and will continue to hold prices down.   The price numbers for the individual suburbs vary widely, but you can not look at prices in one suburb in one quarter and discern much.  The sample size is too small and can be thrown off by a few low or high end sales.  Overall North Shore prices were down, but if the number of sales continues at the current pace, or better yet, increases that will help prices.      

Interest Rates:  Conforming loans (loans below $417,000) continue to have excellent rates with fixed rates at about 4% and Adjustable rates in the 3% area.  Jumbo loans also have good rates with the fixed rate at about 4.75% and adjustable rates in the lower threes.

Short Sales & Foreclosures:  After drifting down for a couple years, the number of short sales and foreclosures is rising again.  This is primarily because banks have resolved or settled some of the issues that caused them to halt many foreclosures that were in the pipeline.  But now they are again moving properties through and placing them on the market.  27% of sales in the North Shore this quarter were either a short sale or foreclosure.   

February 23, 2012

 

Dear Friends,

 

The North Shore real estate market for 2012 has started strong.  The number of homes going under contract is up substantially over any of the past four years for the same time period.  The mild winter has probably helped, but I think it does point to an improving market also.  The strongest segment of the market is the lower end which means median prices are not up.  Nevertheless these strong under contract numbers are encouraging.  Wilmette in particular has done very well so far.  You have to go back to 2007 to find a similar number of homes going under contract by this time of year.  Here are the numbers:

 

	Number of Homes that went Under Contract: 1/1/12 to 2/22/12
		2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007
Wilmette		48	20	30	18	27	47
Evanston		43	32	37	29	41	57
Winnetka		26	24	17	10	14	39
Glenview		74	44	54	27	37	62
North Shore		529	372	385	227	309	476

 

If you know anyone that has been considering selling their home, this may be the year to do it.  As always, I love your referrals.

John Nash

 

January 11, 2012

Dear Friends,

In 2011 the North Shore Market stayed relatively stable.  On the positive side, the number of home sales increased 3% from 2010 and market time declined slightly.  On the other hand, prices declined a little.  In a recovery the number of home sales (i.e. demand) has to increase before prices can follow.  I think we will see the number of sales slowly continue to improve.  I predict, as I have since the end of 2009, that prices will be more or less flat in the coming year. 

	Number of Homes Sales					Average Market Time
		2010	2011			2010	2011
Wilmette		267	262			146	132
Evanston		375	347			144	145
Winnetka		194	210			217	182
Glenview		376	402			209	175
North Shore		3178	3283			187	177
	Average Home Price (in thousands)					Median Home Price (in thousands)
		2010	2011	% Change		2010	2011	% Change
Wilmette		799	710	-11%		660	650	-2%
Evanston		475	481	-1%		435	425	-2%
Winnetka		1368	1260	-8%		1100	1002	-9%
Glenview		556	556	-7%		512	473	-8%
North Shore		631	620	-2%		484	455	-6%

 

The above statistics are for detached single family homes and were compiled from data collected by the Multiple Listing Service (Midwest Real Estate Data LLC), and may not include all home sales

 

Inventory:  I noted in my report a year ago, that contrary to conventional wisdom, inventory in some locations is low.  That is again the case as we start 2012.  Wilmette has approximately 100 active single family homes that are not under contract.  The same number as this time last year.  That is a relatively low number.  In a good market that would only be a 3 month supply, but is a 5 month supply in the current market.  Winnetka has a similar number of listings which is a 6 month supply there, and Evanston has about 150 active homes which is about a 5 month supply.  I expect to see more homes get listed as we approach spring.  This tends to be the time of year when inventory is lowest.

Short Sales/Foreclosures:  20% of North Shore sales in 2011 were either a short sale or a foreclosed property being re- sold by the lender. This is down a bit from 2010 when they accounted for 23% of all sales.  This will continue to be a significant part of the market in 2012.

Interest Rates:  Rates are near all times lows again.  They have been hovering at about 4% for a 30 year conforming fixed rate for the last several months.  Early in 2011 they had moved up to about 5%, but as economic news turned negative and the European debt crisis became big news rates headed back down and have stayed there.

2011 North Shore Sales Facts:  highest sale price--$5,625,000; lowest sale price--$1 (2^nd lowest was $40,000); longest market time—2039 days; most bathrooms—13; Biggest price drop--$8,900,000.

I hope you have an Outstanding 2012 and as always I love your referrals!

 

 

John Nash's Blog

 

2011 Market Reports

 

2010 Year End Market Report

 

2010 3rd Quarter Market Report

 

2010 1st Half Market Report

 

 2010 1st Quater Market Report

 

2009 Year End Market Report Link